Coffee prices today, July 10, 2026
World coffee prices surged sharply across all exchanges.
As predicted by traders, the market continued to experience significant volatility after the sharp price surge earlier this week. Coffee futures prices on the ICE exchange unexpectedly surged, exceeding $4,000 per ton in the July 9th trading session, following two consecutive days of sharp declines. This marked another consecutive day of gains from opening to closing, with the increase nearly matching the record highs seen earlier in the week on both the London and New York exchanges.
At the close of overnight trading on July 9th, the price of September robusta coffee futures on the London exchange rose by more than $300/ton, while the price of arabica coffee increased by 38.1 US cents/lb. According to analysts, the fact that coffee prices, especially arabica, have surpassed important technical thresholds has triggered new buying pressure from speculative funds and investors.
Commenting on this development, experts from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) believe that the market's strong and prolonged fluctuations over several consecutive days are clearly influenced by many factors, not just the usual supply and demand dynamics. Besides seasonal factors, weather, and especially El Nino, the impact of military tensions in the Middle East and the "game" of international financial speculators is quite evident.
With oil and gold prices plummeting, international investment funds are shifting capital towards coffee. This commodity is predicted to establish a new price level in the near future due to El Niño. Furthermore, since the beginning of the year, world coffee prices have fallen sharply due to increased supply, leading to widespread short selling on the two international exchanges. Now, the market needs actual supply to compensate, which is also contributing to the rise in coffee prices.
An analyst from Coffee Trading Academy also commented: "Hedge funds and speculators often use technical signals to decide when to open or close positions. Therefore, a price breakout above a long-term downtrend can be seen as a sign that the downward momentum is weakening, thereby encouraging new buying."
Currently, some argue that concerns about weather conditions in Brazil , with excessively high humidity disrupting the harvest, along with increasingly clear signs of El Niño, have prompted financial investors to return to aggressive buying. Meanwhile, some traders assert that the market overreacted to the slow harvest in Brazil, making the recent price surge difficult to explain.
In fact, harvesting conditions have become more favorable over the past two weeks. Cooxupé, Brazil's largest coffee cooperative, reported that as of early July, its members had harvested 30.9% of their acreage, 23% slower than the same period last year. This is the slowest harvesting progress since at least 2018. According to traders, although the rain has slowed the harvest, the overall crop yield remains unchanged, only taking longer to reach market. However, there are also warnings that coffee quality may be affected, as coffee beans that fall to the ground due to rain are generally of lower quality and will be graded lower.
Meanwhile, the information that has had a major impact on the coffee trading market in recent months is the expectation that Brazil will have a bumper coffee crop, thereby improving global supply this year after many consecutive years of scarcity due to declining production in many producing countries.
The US Climate Prediction Center says there is an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño occurring between October and December, potentially among the strongest El Niño events ever recorded. In the short term, harvest progress in Brazil, arabica quality, El Niño forecasts, and speculative capital flows are expected to continue to be factors with the potential to generate significant volatility.
In the long term, Luigi Lavazza SpA Chairman Giuseppe Lavazza stated in an interview in London on July 8th that, “The market needs to stabilize before we can even consider price reductions.” According to him, the latest wave of volatility in the coffee market is expected to continue, making the prospect of price drops more difficult for consumers hoping for lower prices. The coffee roasting giant believes that at least two bumper harvests and a significant recovery in global inventories would be needed to alleviate supply constraints. This makes price reductions unlikely for the next two years, according to Bloomberg.
Domestic coffee prices unexpectedly surged in line with world prices, trading above 98,000 VND/kg.
The prospect of rising robusta coffee prices is a positive sign for the domestic market, but it's not enough to guarantee an immediate price reversal. Businesses need to observe further developments in futures contracts and the ability to maintain the $4,000/ton mark.
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Domestic coffee prices today, July 10th, increased sharply by 6,000 - 6,100 VND/kg in some key localities. ( Unit: VND/kg) (Source: giacaphe.com)
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According to the World and Vietnam Newspaper, at the close of overnight trading on July 9th, robusta coffee prices reversed course and rose sharply on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange. The September 2026 delivery contract increased by $302, trading at $4,043 per ton. The November 2026 delivery contract increased by $290, trading at $4,002 per ton. Average trading volume was high.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange rose sharply, with the September 2026 contract gaining 38.1 cents to trade at 309.80 cents/lb. The December 2026 contract increased 30.95 cents to trade at 328.02 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Agricultural product prices today, July 10, 2026: Coffee prices surge dramatically, defying supply and demand; the US Coffee Association proposes continued tax exemptions for shipments from Brazil.
Pepper prices today, July 10, 2026
Domestic pepper prices remained stable at around 138,000 - 141,000 VND/kg.
Domestic pepper prices remained stable after a sharp surge. Specifically, pepper prices in some localities on July 10th were as follows:
In Dak Lak province, the price of pepper today is being purchased at 140,000 VND/kg.
In Gia Lai province, the price of pepper today is 138,000 VND/kg.
In the Dak Nong area (Lam Dong province), the price of pepper today is being purchased at 141,000 VND/kg.
In the Ba Ria - Vung Tau (Ho Chi Minh City) area, the price of pepper today is 139,000 VND/kg.
In Dong Nai province, the price of pepper today is 138,000 VND/kg; in Binh Phuoc province, the price of pepper today is also being purchased at 138,000 VND/kg.
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The latest world pepper prices are updated from the International Pepper Association (Source: giacaphe.com).
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Vietnam's pepper exports slowed in June mainly due to a decline in domestic supply after a very strong first half of 2026, rather than a weakening of demand. Nevertheless, cumulative pepper exports for the first six months of 2026 still reached 145,686 tons, a 17.4% increase compared to the same period in 2025, indicating that 2026 remains a positive year for exports.
Brazspice, an international trading brokerage specializing in pepper and spices, believes that the global pepper market is in a consolidation phase rather than a downward correction. Prices generally remain stable in key producing countries; however, fundamental supply and demand factors continue to tighten, suggesting a more positive outlook for the second half of 2026.
Today's export rice prices (July 10, 2026)
Export rice prices remain stable, according to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA).
In Vietnam, the export price of 5% broken white rice remains at 410-414 USD/ton.
Export prices for Jasmine rice fluctuate. 513 - 517 USD/ton, a slight decrease of 3 USD/ton.
The price of fragrant rice with 5% broken grains has increased to 510-520 USD/ton .
Compared to other major exporting countries, Thai 5% broken white rice still commands the highest price, at $471-$475 per ton. Meanwhile, the same product from Pakistan is offered at $408-$412 per ton. For India, the price of 5% broken white rice currently fluctuates between $350-$354 per ton, while parboiled 5% broken rice is traded at $341-$345 per ton.
Regarding demand, according to data from the Philippine Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI), the Philippines imported 2.75 million tons of rice in the first six months of the year, marking a record high for this period. The latest BPI data shows a 20.1% increase in rice imports, equivalent to approximately 460,000 tons, compared to 2.29 million tons in the same period last year. This is the largest volume of rice imported in the first half of the year since the BPI began compiling rice import data in 2019.
The story of the import and export market.
The US coffee industry has officially requested that the Trump administration continue to exempt imported green coffee beans from Brazil from tariffs. This move comes during a public consultation session on July 8th aimed at reviewing tariff policies on products from this South American country.
Besides green coffee beans, the National Coffee Association (NCA) also recommended that the government add instant coffee to the list of Brazilian goods exempt from tariffs. According to the NCA, this ingredient plays a crucial role in maintaining the competitiveness of the domestic coffee industry, especially in the context of the booming market for new products such as ready-to-drink canned coffee.
NCA Chairman William Murray emphasized, "Maintaining the duty-free import flow of these coffee product groups will greatly benefit the U.S. economy while protecting the interests of nearly 200 million adults in the country who consume coffee daily."
Currently, Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee, meeting up to 30% of the total demand of the US market.
In 2025, the US imposed tariffs of up to 50% on goods from Brazil, causing chaos in the American coffee industry. The situation only eased when the government decided to include green coffee beans on the exemption list. However, instant coffee continued to bear the 50% tariff until the US Supreme Court ruled against most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Currently, this product is subject to a global tariff of only 10%.
This week, the U.S. government is conducting a series of consultations related to its Section 301 investigation into Brazil's trade practices. Consequently, the Trump administration may reimpose a 25% tariff on a range of Brazilian imports, alleging unfair competitive practices across various sectors, from digital trade to illegal deforestation.
An NCA representative warned that previous tariff policies had directly caused "visible price inflation on common goods." This placed extremely heavy cost pressure on American businesses that produce instant coffee, liquid coffee concentrates, syrups, and food service mixes.